Grape Production in New York Current Status and Recent Trends
	Return to Bob Pool Home page    Return to Horticultural Sciences Home page  Return to Grape Pages Index

The state's grape production regions

Larger Map

The most recent (2001) Survey of Orchards and Vineyards published by the NY Agricultural Statistics Service indicated that there are 31,745 acres of vineyard in New York state growing on 962 farms. The state's production is still dominated by Native American varieties and 65 percent of the acreage is planted to Concord.

Table 1. Major grape varieties grown in New York state in 2001

Counties bounded by Lake Erie (Chautauqua and Erie) and the Finger Lakes have more than 85% of the state's vineyard acreage. Lake Erie counties, Chautauqua and Erie, have more than half of the state acreage. These vineyards form the northern half of the "Concord grape belt" which borders Lake Erie in New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The dominance of traditional Native American varieties is most complete in this region; almost 99% of the acreage is planted to native varieties with more than 90% of that being Concord.

Native American varieties also form a majority of Finger Lakes grape acreage (62%). but, the more diverse needs of the wine industry demands a greater array of grape varieties. The survey reports 9 separate native varieties in the region, and less than 1/3 of the acreage is planted to Concord. Hybrid varieties make up 21% of the Finger Lakes acres, and Vitis vinifera 13%. Although the eastern counties (primarily Ulster, Duchess and Suffolk counties) have considerable native and hybrid grape acreage, the area is dominated by V. vinifera varieties. This is especially true for Suffolk county where V. vinifera varieties are as dominant as Concord is in the Lake Erie region.

Farm Size

The state's grape acreage reached a maximum in 1975, and thereafter has fallen. Grape farm number changed little between 1965 and 1975, it steadily declineduntil 1996 and has remained even since. Farm number declined more than acreage indicating a consolidation of farms and possibly elimination of acreage of marginal quality. Selective elimination of lower quality plantings, increased farm size and introduction of new technology has meant that, in spite of acreage reduction, the total production of grapes has remained almost constant between 1975 and the present.

Between 1990 and 1996 the greatest loss of farms was in the <5 to 50 acre range. Between 1996 and 2001 there was a greater loss in the 50 to 100 acre range. Cost of production sudies indicate that the typical native American grape farm is too small to provide a full income for most families. The majority of farms fall in the 10 to 50 acre range, but economic analysis suggests that at least 100 acres are required to both justify the equipment investment and to provide sufficient income for most families. Less than 7% of the farms presently meet the size . In 1990, the estimated minimum economic size was 50 acres and 16% of the farms were in that range. Of course many of the smaller farms do not depend entirely on grape production or even on farming to provide the full family income.

Between 1990 and 1996 the greatest loss of farms was in the <5 to 50 acre range. Between 1996 and 2001 there was a greater loss in the 50 to 100 acre range. Cost of production sudies indicate that the typical native American grape farm is too small to provide a full income for most families. The majority of farms fall in the 10 to 50 acre range, but economic analysis suggests that at least 100 acres are required to both justify the equipment investment and to provide sufficient income for most families. Less than 7% of the farms presently meet the size. In 1990, the estimated minimum economic size was 50 acres and 16% of the farms were in that range. Of course many of the smaller farms do not depend entirely on grape production or even on farming to provide the full family income.

Changes and trends

As with any commodity, economics drives grape production. When consumer preference changes so do processor needs. Nationally, during the 1960's there was a large increase in US per capita wine consumption but a change from a preference for dessert (fortified) wines to one for table wines. In the 1970's demand for table wine continued to increase, but the most of the increase was for white table wine (in 1970 80% of US table wine was red). In the 1980's overall wine consumption dropped slightly, but total dollar sales continued to increase. Consumers were dropping out or trading up to more expensive wine. More recently favorable news regarding the benefits of regular wine consumption, especially red wine consumption, has enhanced the demand for red and more expensive table wines. These later trends have been intensified during the last few years.

Percent change in acres of the major native American grape varieties (lines - 1996 base year) and actual 1996 and 2001 acreage of the same varieties (columns)

New York planting trends followed these national ones. Note above that Concord acreage was relatively stable until 1980's. During the 1960's Catawba, Delaware and, to a lesser extent Niagara, were planted to meet the increased demand for white table wine. These varieties produce palatable, although relatively inexpensive white table wines which carry a degree of residual sweetness. During the same period Concord acreage began to fall reflecting the reduced market share of dessert and sweet red table wines. Since 1990 Catawba and Delaware acreage have declined. This is because they are not well suited for the production of the dry, high quality table wines which are now in most demand.

Recently there has been some increase in Niagara acreage. Most is being planted for the white juice market. The demand for white juice has increased, and it appears that the processors perceive eastern Niagara juice to be of higher quality than that produced in Washington state. Planting incentives offered by National Grape Cooperative were responsible for the increase in Niagara acreage between 1996 and 2001. However, the same processors do not have the same appreciation for eastern Concord juice. There has been a distinct shift in Concord juice production from the east to Washington state where cost of production and pesticide load is lower and where higher sugar, lower acid Concord grapes are produced. These are cheaper to process, and better suited to the preference of consumers in the expanding markets of the Pacific rim. Most recently, bulk wine buyers of Native grapes have reduced their demand from "low acid" varieties (Concord and Niagara) to "high acid" (Catawba and Elivira) grapes. This has caused the price for Niagar grapes to fall to near the average for Native varieties, and will probably result in reduced acreage of these two varieties in the Finger Lakes region.

NYS Dept. of Agric. and Markets is supporting the construction of a kosher grape juice processing facility in the Lake Erie area. Because a major eastern New York buyer of Concord grapes for kosher wine production may take advantage of this new supply, the market for Finger Lakes Concord grapes may be further reduced.

Category and price

The value of the different type of New York grapes reflect changes in markets. The above figure shows that, in constant (1984) dollars, the value of all grapes types has declined steadily since the mid-1970's. The change has been most dramatic for Concord and hybrid varieties, but is also evident for vinifera varieties. Since 1997 prices offered for all grape varieties have been relatively high, but even so, only very efficient growers will obtain substantial returns on investment growing native American grape varieties. The figure below shows 1997 price per ton of certain grape varieties in comparable NY and California production regions. Note that white labrusca (Native) varieties are priced higher than their counterpart in California. This suggests that NY growers should not expect substantial gains over the next few years. However, the price for premium wine grapes is still substantially higher in California than in NY. Currently the demand for premium and standard table wines has resulted in a favorable price for hybrids, especially red hybrids, and demand exceeds supply for V. vinifera varieties.

It appears that the increased supply in California (and world wide) are negatively impactubg prices for New York grapes. Standard quality (San Joaquin valley) wine grapes were in great surplus in 2001. Prices for all varieties are expected to drop. Concord production was below average in 2001 due to inclement weather, but planting in Washington state will greatly increase national supply of Concord grapes. Expectations are that, in the near term, prices for grapes in New York will be stable at best.

What do strategies do these numbers suggest?

First, investment in new plantings of native American varieties should be considered carefully. Although the current supply of Concord is not excessive, planting in Washington state and preference for their fruit for juice production suggests that only the most efficient growers will be able to compete in this market. Growers who have existing vineyards or who do not depend upon grape production for their major livelihood may be in a better situation, but they should carefully examine their options. The outlook for Delaware is worse than that for Concord. Efficiency is a key for survival. Demand for Niagara seems a little more secure because of the quality differential between eastern and western product. Still, growers should be aware that recent news of the health benefits of red grape juice may affect change the relative preference for red and white juice in the same way that it has red and white wine. The market for "high acid" white Native varieties has been stable, suggesting that Catawba and Elvira demand may be somewhat more secure in the immediate future. However, the great excess grape supply in California, and changed management structure in a major buyer of Finger Lakes grapes, may well impact local demand of these two varieties.

The fact that, in spite of an apparent world wide preference for red wines, white hybrid variety prices have surged in New York is encouraging. Demand for quality table wines is up, and the premium wineries have a good market for quality white wines. The key is to produce quality grapes and wines. This means that the grower and winery must work together to produce fruit which will result in wines of competitive quality and grape values which reflect the grower's investment.

Demand for vinifera varieties in New York continues to increase. Currently there is an impression that the number of sites suitable for expansion of vinifera production in New York is very limited, especially in the Finger Lakes and the Hudson Valley. It would be interesting to see to what extent the advances in knowledge we have gained about growing V. vinifera in New York might allow expansion onto sites which were formerly considered unsuitable for their production.

Some vinifera wine producers feel that the present favorable prices for vinifera are somewhat problematic. They mandate higher than average price points for their wines. The large national supply has caused drastsic price cuts in other quality production regions. Although regional sales of New York wines is strong, future expansion into other markets will require more competitive pricing. Data from Dr. White's cost of vinifera production study suggests that, so long as yield targets are appropriate and attainable, modest reductions in price may not inevitably destroy profitability for grape growers. On the other hand, the same study shows that, when yields are moderate, the current prices are required to attain profitability.

2002 listed price per ton for grape varieties offered in different regions of California or NY

The figure above shows 2002 prices for different varieties and regions within California or New York. In general, NY prices are slightly higher than prices offered in the central coast (Monteray) and substantially lower than the prices offered in Sonoma or Napa. This suggests that our current prices are not far off the target for premium wine grapes making value priced wines. The fact that the price for NY Concord was about 3 times the price for San Joaquine valley Thompson Seedless shows that there is little reason to think that Concord prices will increase soon.

What if you have neither the site, nor the desire to plant other than native American grapes? The solution would seem to be finding a way to increase the value of your grapes. Options include producing organically grown or table grapes and direct retail marketing through farm stands, regional farmer's markets or the New York city green markets.

Return to Bob Pool Home page

Return to Horticultural Sciences Home page

Return to Grape Pages Index

© Copyright 2000 Robert Pool