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What are Degree-days and How Do I Run the Model?




Introduction - The degree-day model is an empirical model for predicting ascospore maturity. The cumulative percentage of mature ascospores at various degree-day accumulations is given in the following table.




Degree-day1

Cumulative Ascospores Mature (%)

90% Confidence Interval for Estimate2

35

1

0 - 7

110

3

0 - 14

145

5

1 - 19

215

10

2 - 32

325

25

7 - 55

450

50

21 - 80

575

75

46 - 94

685

90

69 - 98

740

95

79 - 99

790

97

86 - 100

865

99

93 - 100

1Degree-days should be recorded from the date when 50% of McIntosh fruit buds are between silver tip and green tip. The base temperature for degree-day accumulation is 32° F. Data of Gadoury & MacHardy, 1982.

2The width of the 90% confidence interval is a statistical measure of the precision of estimated maturity. It is the range within which the estimate should fall 90% of the time.


Degree-day Accumulation - A degree-day is simply the average temperature for any given day. Degree-days are calculated by adding the high temperature (HT) and the low temperature (LT) for any given day and dividing the result by two (Fig. 1).


degree-day calculation, Figure 1

Often, the degree-day calculation is modified with a temperature threshold, called the Base. This temperature threshold is usually related to some significant temperature for the model. The base is simply subtracted from the degree-day calculation for the day. If subtracting the base results in a negative number, the degree-day calculation equals zero (Fig. 2).


degree-day calculation with Base, Figure 2

Finally, degree-day accumulations are determined by simply summing the degree-day calculations over time. Often, degree-day accumulations will have a starting date based on some significant event in the model. This starting date for the ascospore maturity degree-day model is called the Biofix (Fig. 3).


degree-day accumulation, Figure 3



Additional Information

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