Ascospore Maturity Model 2008 -Running!

The Ascospore Maturity Model is a tool that predicts the maturity of ascospores of the apple scab pathogen at a given time. Since infection is caused by ascospores liberated by rain events, the model can be used with weather data to predict the possible onset and end of primary apple scab infection.

Click on the name of the location below to obtain an estimate of spore maturity for a given region!

(Dead or malfunctioning stations are highlighted in red)

Ascospore Maturity Model Forecast - 2008

Albion,
Orleans Co.

Chazy,
Clinton Co.

Clifton Park,
Saratoga Co.

Clintondale,
Ulster Co.

Geneva,
Ontario Co.

Ithaca,
Tompkins Co.

Knowlesville,
Orleans Co.

Lansing,
Tompkins Co.

Lyndonville,
Orleans Co.

Mexico,
Oswego Co.

Appleton, North,
Niagara Co.

Sodus,
Wayne Co.

Red Hook,
Dutchess Co.

Appleton, South,
Niagara Co.

Waterport,
Orleans Co.

Williamson,Motts
Wayne Co.
Guilderland,
Albany Co.		 Lockport,
Niagra Co.		 Watkins Glen,
Schuyler Co.		 Marlboro,
Ulster Co.
Hudson,
Columbia Co.		 Peru,
Clinton Co.		    

Click here for 2007, 2006, and 2005 data!

Weather data provided by NEWA

Guidelines for using the model and interpreting the results

1. Compare the predicted % ascospore maturity with rain events for your location.

2. Infection events are likely to occur when high percentages of ascospores are mature and rain events occur

3. When 95% of ascospores are mature, essentially all ascospores will be released after a daytime rain event exceeding 1/10th of an inch (0.25 cm) with a temperature over 50F (10C).

Note of Caution: Ascospores are tiny, produced in astronomical numbers, and only one successful spore is needed to infect and begin the epidemic.

Legend

1. 'Leaf picuture' indicates 50% green tip on McIntosh fruit buds

2. '95%' indicates date of 95% ascospore maturity

3. 'Dead station' indicates that the NEWA station for that location is not recording data

4. 'Station malfunction' indicates date that the NEWA station for that location is not recording all of the data.

Brief Model Description and History:

In short, the model uses degree-days (base = 32F), accumulated from an early apple bud phase (green tip), to estimate the cumulative maturity of ascospores . The model was initially developed at the University of New Hampshire and was refined in subsequent studies conducted in New York and Norway over a period of more than 25 years. The model provides an estimate of ascospore maturity that is suitably accurate for many decisions that are made with respect to controlling apple scab. Click here for guidance on how to interpret the model estimates and general information on epidemiology and control of scab.