Cornell University Home Page New York State Agricultural Research Station Home Page
Home
About Us
Pome Fruit
Stone Fruit
Small Fruit
Hops
Disease Index
Forecasting
Extension Presentations
Research
Pesticide Resources
Links

Mills Tables

| Introduction | Split Wetting Periods | Day vs Night Discharge |




Mills Table Predictions - 2006

Location, County

Albion,
Orleans Co.

Chazy,
Clinton Co.

Clifton Park,
Saratoga Co.

Clintondale,
Ulster Co.

Geneva,
Ontario Co.

Ithaca,
Tompkins Co.

Knowlesville,
Orleans Co.

Lansing,
Tompkins Co.

Lyndonville,
Orleans Co.

Mexico,
Oswego Co.

Appleton, North
Niagara Co.

Red Hook,
Dutchess Co.

Sodus,
Wayne Co.

Appleton, South
Niagara Co.

Waterport,
Orleans Co.

Williamson, Motts
Wayne Co.

      Weather data provided by NEWA (Username = tfabp; Password = tfabp)




Introduction - The Mills curves, published in 1944, were the first attempt at using forecasting to help growers time the application of sulfur dusts for apple scab management. The Mills curves relate the hours of leaf wetting and temperature during a wetting period to the likelihood of scab infection. The first fungicide spray is applied during the first predicted infection event and subsequent applications are applied relative to the residual activity of the pesticide and other predicted infection events. The Mills curves, however, have been modified over the years as more was learned about the disease, but the overall premise behind the use of these curves remained the same. Jones' modification of the curves are referred to as the Modified Mills Table and MacHardy and Gadoury's modification are referred to as the Revised Mills Table curves.


Which of the two Mills tables should be used? The Revised Mills Table reflects the most up-to-date information available on the infection process of apple scab and is preferred over the Modified Mills table because of this (this is the table we use at Cornell). The Modified Mills table is kept here for reference because many older computerized forecast models still use this table.


Three findings led to the development of the revised table.

  1. Shorter times for infection. Infection by ascospores or conidia can occur in less time than reported by Mills. This is especially true at temperatures below 42° F. For example, the minimum time required for infection at 37 F is 30 hours. This is 11–18 hours less than reported in previous infection period tables.


  2. Equal requirements for primary and secondary infection. Earlier tables stated that infection by conidia (secondary infections) required less time than by ascospores (primary infections). However, subsequent research has demonstrated that both spore types infect at similar rates at equivalent temperatures. Furthermore, both spore types are frequently present in the orchard between tight cluster and petal fall, a critical period for scab control. Therefore, a single set of conditions should be used for determining primary and secondary infections.


  3. Only minimum times are listed in the new table. Unlike previous tables, the new version does not rate the severity of infection periods. Longer wetting at any given temperature often causes more disease, and a 2- to 6-fold increase in severity generally results when wetting is extended beyond the minimum times specified in the new table. However, the actual quantity of disease that will develop from any infection period is affected to a much greater degree by factors other than the duration of wetting. Thus, the rating of severity based on duration of wetting alone is frequently misleading. Severe infection can result from “light” Mills periods if other factors (tree growth and susceptibility, inoculum availability) are optimal. Likewise, severe disease often fails to materialize following “heavy” Mills periods if these same factors are limiting.

Intermittent Wetting Periods - Growers who rely on the Mills Table to predict apple scab infections often ask, "How should I handle intermittent wetting periods?" Several studies have been conducted in an attempt to answer this question, but none of the studies provided answers for all of the various combinations of temperatures and wetting and drying intervals. Yet, results from the experiments that have been conducted DO provide us with enough information to derive a good rule of thumb.


The most detailed study to date was conducted by Chris Becker and Tom Burr in the early 1990's. In their approach, they asked if apple scab conidia could cause disease after exposure to various wet-dry-wet intervals at either 50, 59, 68, or 77 F. Three initial wet intervals were tested, either: (1) 15 min., (2) the time at each temperature required for ~50% of conidia to germinate, which turned out to be 7, 5, 4, and 5 hours at 50, 59, 68, and 77 F, respectively, or (3) the time at each temperature required for ~20% of the conidia to also form an appresorium (i.e., 20% of the spores penetrated the host) which was 12, 8, 7, and 8 hours at 50, 59, 68, and 77 F, respectively. An appresorium is the structure the fungus produces to penetrate the host plant. After exposure to the initial wet interval, plants were exposed to 0, 0.25, 6, 12, 24, or 96 hours of drying at either 60% (low) or 90% (high) relative humidity. This was followed by a final wet interval of 24 hours. After exposure to the final wet period, they assessed the proportion of ungerminated conidia and germlings (i.e., germinated conidia) with or without an appresorium that were killed.


Results of this study showed that ungerminated conidia were not killed by exposure to dry intervals until drying exceeded 96 hours within the range of temperatures and relative humidities studied. Germlings with or without an appresorium were more sensitive to drying than ungerminated conidia. Twenty percent of germlings were killed after the first 15 min. of drying and an additional 10-30% after 96 hours. Germlings with appresoria were killed after 24 and 96 hours, too, but the attrition rate was lower than for germlings without appresoria. Even after 96 hours of drying, over 75% of ungerminated conidia and germlings were still able to penetrate the apple leaf during the second 24-hour-long wet interval.


Becker and Burr proposed the following rule based on their results: "If the interval of drying is less than 48 hours in length, the initial and subsequent intervals of wetting should be summed to calculate Mills infection periods." This rule is more conservative than the "typical" rule of 'summing wetting periods separated by less than either 8 hours of sunny weather or 12 hours of cloudy weather.' Where did this rule come from? In a review of the scientific literature MacHardy found NO scientific basis for the establishment of this rule. In fact, nearly all the research that has been conducted shows that a high proportion of both ascospores and conidia survive drying periods of 24 hours or more whether it is sunny or not. Has this rule worked in the field? Perhaps. If it has, though, it is not because spores have died after only 12 hours of drying.


Several other factors affect the amount of disease that develops after a predicted infection event. These include: (1) the amount of primary inoculum in an orchard, assessed via PAD counts in the fall; (2) the stage of development of ascosporic inoculum in the spring, assessed via squash mounts, spore traps, and degree day model calculations; (3) the time of day and season when rain and leaf wetness occurs because ascospore discharge occurs during daylight whereas conidia can be disseminated anytime by splashing rain; and (4) whether the principal source of inoculum is ascospores or conidia.


MacHardy suggests a less conservative rule than Becker and Burr's to follow for combining successive wetting periods: "two successive wetting periods, the first started by rain, should be considered a single, uninterrupted wet period if the intervening dry period is less than 24 h, regardless of weather conditions (sunshine, temperature, and RH) during the intervening dry period." This rule, in our opinion, should be the rule adopted by NY growers. This rule is easier rule to apply, slightly more conservative, and, most importantly, consistent with the results of research.


Day vs. Night Release of Ascospores - This issue is separate from the use of the revised table, but is related to its application in low-inoculum orchards. Extensive research has shown that under most circumstances, over 95% of the available ascospores are not released until after sunrise when rain begins after sunset. Thus, in low inoculum orchards, it is often safe to assume that primary infection periods begin at dawn when rain begins at night. This assumes that the low percentage of night-released ascospores, coupled with the already low seasonal “crop” of ascospores at low-inoculum sites, is insignificant. However, secondary spores (conidia) are not affected by light or darkness. Therefore, DO NOT ignore wetting hours during darkness if scab infections have already been observed in the orchard or if you are not certain of excellent control for all previous infection periods.


From: B. Turechek, J. Carroll and the Cornell Tree Fruit Guidelines


References:


Becker, C.M., and Burr, T.J. 1994. Discontinuous wetting and survival of conidia of Venturia inaequalis on apple leaves. Phytopathology 84:372-378.


MacHardy, W.E. 1996. Apple Scab: Biology, Epidemiology, and Management, APS Press, St. Paul, Minnesota, pp. 545.


Top of Page

| Home | About Us | Pome Fruit | Stone Fruit | Small Fruit | Disease Fact Sheet Index |
| Real-Time Forecasting | Research | Extension Presentations | News Letter | Links |

Tree Fruit and Berry Pathology
New York State Agricultural Experiment Station
Geneva, New York 14456
Copyright 2001 - Cornell, University
| Contact Us | Link to Us |
 Site is best viewed with IE 5.x, Netscape 6.0 or higher