Messages From The 1996 New York State Orchard and Vineyard Survey

Robert Pool
Department of Horticultural Sciences
New York State Agricultural Experiment Station
Geneva, NY 14456 
 The New York Agricultural Statistics Service is a joint activity of the NY state and federal governments. Twice per decade it has conducted and published surveys of our state's orchards and vineyards. Since 1990, full funding has not been available for this activity. Because the surveys provide snapshots of the fruit industry that allow changes and trends to be identified, surveys are important to planners and investors. Users range from individual growers to the federal government. Realizing the importance of this activity, the New York Wine and Grape Foundation has provided partial support for the 1990 and 1996 surveys. The 1996 survey was recently released; this article highlights the changes it reveals.

 

Current Status

In 1996 there were 31,226 acres of vineyards in New York State growing on 990 farms. The state's vineyards are dominated by native American varieties (Table 1) and 65% of the acreage is planted to Concord.
Table 1. Acreage of major grape varieties grown in New York State in 1996.
Rank Variety Type NY Acres % NY 
Acres
%Non-Concord 
NY acres
1 Concord Native 19,948 64.9 --
2 Niagara Native 2,375 7.7 22.0
3 Catawba Native 2,019 6.6 18.7
4 Aurore Hybrid 1,031 3.4 9.6
5 Chardonnay V.vinifera 914 3.0 8.5
6 Elvira Native 581 1.9 5.4
7 Delaware Native 568 1.8 5.3
8 White Riesling V. vinifera 385 1.3 3.6
9 Baco noir Hybrid 375 1.2 3.5
10 Seyval Hybrid 315 1.0 2.9

 

Lake Erie counties and the Finger Lakes share almost 90% of the state's vineyard acreage. Chautauqua and Erie Counties of New York form the northern half of the "grape belt" bordering Lake Erie in New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and these two counties have more than half of the state acreage (Fig. 1). The dominance of traditional native American varieties is most complete in this region; almost 99% of the acreage is planted to native varieties and almost 90% of that is Concord  


Figure 1. 1996 vineyard acreage in New York State

Native American varieties also form a majority of Finger Lakes grape acreage (66%), but the more diverse needs of the FL wineries lead to a greater array of grape varieties (Table 2). The survey reports on 9 separate native American varieties growing in the region, and less than 1/3 of the acreage is planted to Concord. Hybrid varieties make up 21.8% of the Finger Lakes acres, and Vitis vinifera 7.4%. Although the eastern counties (primarily Ulster, Columbia and Suffolk counties) have considerable native American and hybrid grape acreage, the area is dominated by V. vinifera varieties (Table 2). This is especially true for Suffolk county where little other than V. vinifera varieties are planted.
Table 2. Acreage of grapes in New York in 1996 by grape type and region of production.
Chatuqua / Erie  Finger Lakes  Other Western Counties  Eastern Counties  New York State
Grape Type Acres % of Region Acres % of Region Acres % of Region Acres % of Region Acres % Region
Native 17,448 98.8 6,728 66.6 1,237 90.5 442 21.0 25,855 82.8
Hybrid 71 0.4 2,199 21.8 0 0.0 65 3.1 2,335 7.5
Vitis vinifera 0 0.0 745 7.4 26 1.9 1,311 62.4 2,082 6.6
Not indicated 141 0.8 425 4.2 104 7.6 284 13.5 954 3.1
Total 17,660 100.0 10,097 100.0 1,367 100.0 2,102 100.0 31,226 100.0

Farm Size

New York's grape acreage reached a maximum in 1975, and thereafter it has fallen (Fig. 2). Grape farm number changed little between 1965 and 1975, but it has since steadily declined. Farm number declined more than acreage, indicating a consolidation of farms and possibly elimination of acreage of marginal quality. Elimination of lower quality plantings, increased farm size, and introduction of new technology have meant that, in spite of acreage reduction, the total production of grapes has remained almost constant between 1975 and the present (Fig. 3).
Figure 2. New York grape acreage and number of grape farms between 1965 and 1996 

 

Figure 3. Annual New York State grape production from 1950 (first data point represents the average yearly production from 1945 -- 1950 

 

Although the farm number has declined, the size distribution of grape farms in the various areas has remained relatively constant (Fig. 4). Studies indicate that the typical native American NY State grape farm is too small to provide a full income for most families.The majority of farms are in the 10 to 50 acre range, and economic analysis indicates that at least 100 acres are required to both justify the equipment investment and to provide sufficient income for most families. Less than 7% of the farms presently meet the 100 acre size. In 1990, the estimated minimum economic size was 50 acres and 16% of the farms were in that range. Of course, many of the smaller farms do not depend entirely on grape production or even on farming to provide the full family income.

Figure 4. Distribution of grape farm size in different New York grape producing regions in 1990 (top) and 1996 (bottom). 

Changes and Trends

As with any commodity, economics drives grape production. Figure 5 illustrates the change in planting among the major traditional New York grape varieties. These changes reflect changes in consumer preference and processor needs. During the 1960's there was a large increase in US per capita wine consumption, but a change from a preference for dessert (fortified) wines to one for table wines. In the1970's demand for table wine continued to increase, but the greatest increase was for white table wine (80% of US table wine sold in 1970 was red). Beginning in the late 1980's overall wine consumption dropped slightly, but total dollar sales continued to increase. Consumers were dropping out or trading up to more expensive wine. More recently, favorable news regarding the benefits of regular wine consumption, especially red wine consumption, has enhanced the demand for red and more expensive table wines.
Figure 5. Change in New York acres of the major native American grape varieties relative to 1966 (lines) and 1996 acreage of the same varieties (columns). 

 

New York planting trends follow these national ones (Fig. 5). Note that Concord acreage was relatively stable until the1980's. During the 1960's Catawba, Delaware and, to a lesser extent, Niagara were planted. This was the period of rapid growth in white wine consumption in the US, and these varieties produce palatable, although relatively inexpensive white table wines that carry a degree of residual sweetness. During the same period Concord acreage fell, reflecting the reduced market share of dessert wines. Since 1980 Catawba and Delaware acreage have declined. This is because they are not well suited for the production of the dry, high quality table wines that are now in most demand.

Recently there has been some increase in Niagara acreage. Most Niagara is being planted for the white juice market. The demand for white juice has increased, and it appears that the processors perceive eastern Niagara juice to be of higher quality than that produced in Washington State. However, the same processors do not have a similar appreciation for eastern grown Concord juice. There has been a distinct shift in Concord juice production from the east to Washington State, where cost of production and pesticide load are lower and where higher-sugar, lower-acid Concord grapes are produced. These are cheaper to process, closer to the expanding Asian markets and produce juice that the current generation of consumers seems to prefer.

Category and Price

The changes in markets are reflected in the change in value of the different types of New York grapes. Figure 6 shows that in constant (1984) dollars, the value of all grapes has declined steadily since the mid-1970's. The change has been most dramatic for Concord and hybrid varieties, but since the early 1980's it is also true for vinifera varieties. The 1997 season saw a general increase in price offered for all grape varieties (Table 3), but even so, only very efficient growers will make substantial returns on investment growing native American grape varieties. Currently, the demand for premium table wines has resulted in a favorable price for hybrids, especially red hybrids, and demand exceeds supply for V. vinifera varieties.
 
Figure 6. Change in average price paid for different grape types in actual and in equivalent 1984 dollar values for the period 1970-1996). 
 
Grape Type 1997 Value ($/Ton) Target Production

(Tons/Acre)

Gross Value/ Acre

(at Target Production)

Native American
White 
$286 
$2002 
Red 
$331 
$2317 
Hybrid
White 
$419 
$2933 
Red 
$433 
$2598 
V. vinifera
White 
$1160 
$4640 
Red 
$1436 
3.5 
$5026 
Table 3. Value of 1997-- grown processing grapes, and potential gross income at stated production levels. Values are calculated from average price offered by Finger Lakes buyers and should not be considered offical.

 

Looking into the Crystal Ball

What strategies do these numbers suggest? First, investment in new plantings of native American varieties should be considered carefully. Although the current supply of Concord is not excessive, planting in Washington State and preference for their fruit for juice production suggest that only the most efficient growers will be able to compete in this market. Growers who have existing vineyards or who do not depend upon grape production for their major livelihood may be in a better situation, but they should carefully examine their options. The outlook for Catawba and Delaware is not any brighter than that for Concord. Efficiency is a key for survival. Because of the quality differential between eastern and western product, future demand for Niagara seems a little more secure. Still, growers should be aware that recent news of the health benefits of red grape juice may affect the relative preference for red and white juices in the same way that it has for red and white wines.

The fact that, in spite of an apparent world-wide preference for red wines, white hybrid variety prices have surged in New York is encouraging. The number of wineries, and hence of potential buyers, has increased greatly in recent years. Just before passage of the NY Farm Winery Act, there were 24 bonded wineries in NY, of which 11 were located in the Finger Lakes. Today there are more than 100 bonded wineries in the state and 49 are located in the Finger Lakes region. Demand for quality table wines is up, and the premium wineries have a good market for both quality white and red wines. The key is to produce quality grapes and wines. This means that the grower and winery must work together to produce fruit that will result in wines of competitive quality and grape values that reflect the grower's investment.

Demand for vinifera varieties in New York continues to increase. Currently there is an impression that the number of sites suitable for expansion of vinifera production in New York is very limited, especially in the Finger Lakes and the Hudson Valley. It would be interesting to see to what extent the advances in knowledge we have gained about growing V. vinifera in New York might allow expansion onto sites which were formerly considered unsuitable for vinifera production.

What if you have neither the site nor the desire to plant other than native American grapes? The solution would seem to be finding a way to increase the value of your grapes. Some ways that this has been done are to produce organically grown grapes, to produce table grapes, to directly participate in retail marketing through farm stands, and to participate in regional farmer's markets or the New York City green markets. 


Sources

NY Orchard and Vineyard Survey 1996, NY Agric.Statistics Service, 1 Winner's Circle, Albany, NY 12235.

 

Shaffer, B. and G. B. White. 1997. Lake Erie Grape Farm Cost Survey 1991-95. Dept. Agric. Res. & Manag. Econ., Cornell Univ. E.B. 97-18.

 

White, G.B., B. Shaffer, R.M. Pool, and A Lalor. 1997. The economics of replanting generic wine grape varieties in New York. Dept. Agric. Res. & Manag. Econ., Cornell Univ. R.B. 97-05.
 
 

Go to: Viticulture Consortium for the Support of Research in Grape Culture